Alaska Was Safe Trump Territory. Now Republicans Are on Defense

Alaska has long been considered a stronghold for President Donald Trump, having voted for him by double digits in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections. The state has also consistently elected Republican senators and governors for most of the past two decades. However, this traditional Republican stronghold is now facing challenges as Republicans struggle to consolidate their base and Democrats gain ground in a fiercely contested Senate race.

Democratic candidate Mary Peltola is fighting to unseat Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, who has held his Senate seat since 2014. Peltola, the first Democrat to win statewide office in Alaska since 2008, is appealing to voters who are frustrated with the state's rising living costs and federal spending cuts. Her campaign argues that she has already proven her ability to win statewide, while Sullivan's team contends that her victory was an anomaly and that Alaskans are unlikely to repeat it.

The race has become even more competitive with the entry of 17 other Republican candidates into the governor's race, further splintering the Republican base. Additionally, President Trump's approval ratings in Alaska have slipped, with a new Ipsos poll released on August 17 showing a national approval rating of 33% and a 64% disapproval rating.

This decline in Trump's popularity could potentially benefit Democrats, as Alaskans are willing to support candidates who prioritize issues such as federal jobs and funding, resource development, and rural healthcare.

The University of Alaska Fairbanks political science professor Brandon Boylan notes that the Sullivan-Peltola race is genuinely competitive, with Peltola holding a real chance of winning outright. She emphasizes that party affiliation is not everything in Alaska, as the state has elected Democrats and independents to other offices before.

While Trump's declining approval ratings may not necessarily hurt Republican candidates like Sullivan, it is clear that the party will need to focus on addressing Alaskans' concerns if they hope to maintain their strong presence in the state's political landscape.