미 30년 국채 금리 19년 만에 최고…금융위기 전야 2007년처럼 전환점?

The recent surge in U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yields has reached its highest level in 19 years, reminiscent of the period following the global financial crisis of 2007. Analysts speculate that this could mark a turning point for the global market. On January 18, the yields on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds surged to 5.3390%, marking the highest level since June 2007.

This is the first time since 2007 that the 30-year bond yield has surpassed 5.3%. The 10-year Treasury bond yield, a key benchmark for mortgages, is also approaching its highest level since 2025. However, the yield on 30-year bonds dropped by 2.50 basis points in the afternoon.

Despite this recent drop, the slump in bond prices continues, as bond yields and prices move inversely. The recent bond market sell-off has been attributed to various factors, including inflation concerns stemming from the war in Iran and the influx of funds into bond funds by big tech companies investing in artificial intelligence.

Additionally, concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's policies have contributed to the market sell-off. Market participants agree that these conditions are unlikely to improve in the short term, potentially signaling a normalization or shift towards a higher interest rate environment reminiscent of the pre-financial crisis era.

If interest rates continue to rise, investors may hesitate to invest in long-term bonds, leading to a potential return to pre-crisis conditions. The increase in bond yields also raises concerns about the U.S. government's budget deficit, which currently accounts for nearly 20% of federal receipts. In fact, almost 1 dollar in every 5 collected by the U.S. government is spent on interest payments.

According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), this figure has risen from 2.1% of GDP in previous years to an estimated 3.3% in the current year, with projections of 4.6% by 2036 if interest rates remain at the current level of 4.7%. This projection assumes a slight increase of just 0.1 percentage points in the 10-year Treasury yield, which would result in an additional $37.9 billion in interest expenses.

The high yield on Treasury bonds affects mortgage rates, which are a critical factor in private borrowing costs. President Trump, who promised to lower mortgage rates, and Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, who pledged to reduce the federal budget deficit and lower interest rates in his first term, have both expressed concerns about the impact of rising interest rates on the economy and markets.

Despite the high current interest rate levels, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, and the stock market has not been significantly affected. However, as interest rates continue to rise, the burden on governments, corporations, and households worldwide may become increasingly burdensome.