금리 동결 전망에도, 미 국채 장기금리 19년 만에 최고치…AI 랠리 복병

While the United States' inflation indicators have stabilized and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising its benchmark interest rates is decreasing, US government bond yields have been rising, particularly for long-term bonds, to fuel concerns in the financial markets. As technology companies expand their artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, borrowing costs for these firms are increasing, which could potentially dampen investor sentiment.

According to Investing.com data, the yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds closed at 5.310% the previous day, marking the highest level in 19 years. This occurred on June 21, 2007, when the yield reached 5.305%. The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds also reached 5.325% on that day. The 10-year US Treasury bond, which serves as a global benchmark for the government bond market, has also risen to 4.746%.

Generally, when inflation concerns lessen, central banks are expected to lower benchmark interest rates, leading to a decline in government bond yields. However, with the stabilization of monthly inflation indicators in the US, the perception of the Fed maintaining benchmark interest rates has become more prevalent, contributing to a slight stabilization in the financial markets.

Nonetheless, the upward trend in long-term bonds remains unbroken. The substantial national debt and years of inflation concerns indicate that market participants are taking the situation seriously. Last week, the US Treasury reported that the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds reached a 2001 high of 5.216%, due to the Treasury's issuance of $25 billion in bonds to manage its large deficit.

This reflects investors' heightened concerns about inflation. Furthermore, the expansion of AI infrastructure investments by technology companies has led to increased issuance of long-term corporate bonds, causing a redistribution of demand for long-term government bonds. Analyst Kim Yoon-kyung from the International Financial Center noted that "hypermegacorporations (large tech firms) are financing their data center establishment projects in the ultra-long-term bond market, competing for limited supply."

Some analysts have suggested that the simultaneous response from the US and Japan to defend the yen against depreciation might inadvertently contribute to the instability of US government bond yields. The concern is that Japan may sell large amounts of US Treasury bonds to defend the exchange rate, prompting the US to intervene to prevent this.

In Korea, the 'AI rally' is being closely watched as a key variable, with rising long-term yields (10-year and 30-year bonds) posing potential threats to the momentum of AI infrastructure investments. If interest rates remain high, it would increase the borrowing costs for technology companies, necessitating a reassessment of the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments.

Kim Seong-su from Hankyoreh Investment Research Institute stated that "the transition of the bond market to a bullish phase (falling interest rates) would require a significant reduction in AI investments or preventing AI from increasing supply to the bond market, both of which scenarios seem unlikely." Hwang Tae-hwan from Yujo Investment Research Institute added that "even if the stock market continues to recover, the resilience of its upward trajectory could weaken if long-term yields continue to rise."

On this day, the KOSPI ended at 6,869.83, down 1.55% from the previous trading day, reflecting the impact of rising US government bond yields and other factors. Analyst Won Sam-young from Future Asset Securities noted that "the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and other factors affecting government bond yields will require further monitoring."