“1.5도 실패하면 노년층 22%, 해마다 한달씩 위험 폭염 노출”

A recent study suggests that if Earth's temperature rise exceeds the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, an estimated 22% of the global elderly population, around 293 million people, could experience dangerous heat conditions each month. The research, published in the 'Lancet Planetary Health' journal, was conducted by a team from Stanford University, Pennsylvania State University, and other institutions.

Previous climate predictions primarily focused on the "tolerable heat limit" for healthy, younger adults, which may underestimate the heat risk for older individuals. To address this, the study divided people into three age groups: young (15-39 years), middle-aged (40-59 years), and elderly (60 years and older). By applying varying tolerable heat limits according to age and combining it with climate and population outlooks, researchers estimated the number of people exposed to dangerous heat across different regions.

Under a 1.5°C warming scenario, the study found that 13.3 million elderly individuals worldwide would be exposed to dangerous heat for more than 180 hours annually. Assuming an average of six hours of exposure per day, this equates to roughly one month of exposure. The risk of heat exposure increased significantly with higher temperature rises. For instance, at a 4°C warming scenario, the threat would be 8.2 times greater than at 1.5°C and twice as prevalent as for middle-aged adults.

The most vulnerable regions for heat exposure were densely populated areas with high humidity in South Asia and the Persian Gulf, particularly in India's Delhi and Pakistan's Lahore, as well as in Dubai, UAE. In all four countries (India, Pakistan, UAE, and Bangladesh), the number of people exposed to dangerous heat would exceed 180 hours annually. India would have the highest number of exposed elderly, reaching 648 million at 3°C warming.

In summary, the research highlights the disproportionate impact of temperature rise on vulnerable populations, emphasizing the need for targeted heat mitigation strategies in aging societies.