XRP Price Forecast: Selling Pressure Eases at $1 But XRP Still Risks a Major Drop

In the past month, XRP (XRP) experienced an 8% decrease, briefly touching the $1 support level. Trading volumes have increased as this area may present strong accumulation, yet the risk of a drop below $1 remains. Trading volumes surged by 113% in the last 24 hours, reaching nearly $1 billion, but this is still a relatively small portion of the asset's circulating market cap, accounting for just 1.5%.

The macroeconomic situation slightly improved last week, with U.S. inflation dropping by 10 basis points, as anticipated. Consequently, the probability of a September interest rate hike decreased to 30%, and investors now anticipate the Federal Reserve may postpone its decision until December. A respite in the market is possible, resulting in a potential rally off these lows due to this shift in expectations regarding monetary policy.

The Fed's minutes scheduled for release on Wednesday may provide clearer insights into the central bank's plans and the overall tone of discussions, which could influence the rate hike decisions. Currently, there is persistent weakness in market interest in XRP, with net inflows into ETFs tied to these tokens declining for three consecutive months.

If this trend continues, inflows by the end of the month may only amount to $6 million, a 78% decline compared to last month and a 95% drop compared to May, XRP's best month thus far. This weak interest reflects poor expectations for the project's growth potential, despite potential favorable drivers such as the approval of the Clarity Act.

On-chain metrics indicate a spike in daily active addresses, suggesting ongoing accumulation at $1. Moreover, net inflows to exchanges have significantly decreased, yet the price has not retreated, which may imply that these sales have been absorbed by buyers expecting XRP to rebound from $1. If active addresses rise above 200,000, it could signal the beginning of a strong recovery, as it has done in the past.

On the daily chart, the next target could be the $1.15 level if the rebound occurs. A move above this mark could pave the way for a stronger rally to $1.30, representing a 30% upside potential in the near term. However, the risk of a drop to $0.65, our bearish target for the token, still exists. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently favors a negative outlook at 37.

However, if the oscillator manages to rise above the signal line and exceed 40, it could indicate the beginning of a trend reversal towards the aforementioned targets.