Why Goldman Sachs thinks the Fed won’t be hiking interest rates in September

A Goldman Sachs research report projects global investment in artificial intelligence (AI) to reach $1 trillion by 2026, accounting for 1.4% of global GDP by 2028. Investment is expected to remain strong in the near term, supporting capital spending over the next two years. The estimated $1 trillion in global AI investment includes $581 billion in the United States, which is broader than the $794 billion projected by US hyperscalers alone.

Cumulatively, AI-related investment since 2022 could reach $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs acknowledges that AI investment's pace and scale remain uncertain, but the projections suggest the investment levels observed are within historical ranges for general-purpose technology buildouts. Near-term indicators, such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports and GPU rental prices, are near their recent highs, signaling potential for continued growth in AI capital expenditure.

However, the estimates carry some risk of double-counting and assumptions difficult to verify, so Goldman Sachs has cross-checked the projections using corporate earnings revisions, government investment data, and global trade flows.