War In Ukraine Will Most Likely End With A Ceasefire, Not Peace — Dutch Diplomat

Robert Serry, the inaugural Dutch ambassador to Ukraine from 1992 to 1996, shared his views on Russia's war against Ukraine with Ukrinform. He opined that the conflict will likely end with a ceasefire rather than a lasting peace, emphasizing the crucial difference. Serry doubted that Russia and Ukraine could forge a comprehensive peace treaty after the turmoil.

His preferred outcome was a durable ceasefire, as he acknowledged that historical major wars have often concluded with ceasefires instead of full peace agreements, drawing parallels to the situations in North and South Korea and India and Pakistan. The Dutch diplomat pointed to India and Pakistan's non-aggression agreement post-war as an ideal model for Ukraine, particularly considering Ukraine's aspirations for EU and potentially NATO membership.

He stressed that such an agreement would underscore Ukraine's commitment to resolving territorial disputes exclusively through peaceful means, thereby aligning with the prerequisites of these international organizations. However, Serry cautioned against emulating the Minsk agreements, which compelled Ukraine to make unilateral concessions like constitutional amendments.

He strongly hoped that the war wouldn't conclude with a replay of the Minsk scenario. Instead, he advocated for a genuinely controlled ceasefire, stressing the necessity of a robust monitoring mechanism to prevent any truce from becoming fragile. Serry's main takeaway from Minsk was the importance of a reliable ceasefire regime.

He also expressed less pessimism about Russia potentially initiating another war, provided that Ukraine and its military retained their strength. This assessment came after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy disclosed that Ukraine had crafted a plan to bring the war to a close, which was relayed to its allies.