War in Ukraine most likely to end with ceasefire, not peace – Dutch diplomat
Robert Serry, the first Ambassador of the Netherlands to Ukraine, serving from 1992 to 1996, said that Russia’s war against Ukraine will most likely end with a ceasefire rather than peace.
Dutch diplomat Gijs H. Serry predicts that the war in Ukraine is most likely to conclude with a ceasefire, rather than a peace treaty. He explains that this distinction is crucial, as he doubts Russia and Ukraine will be able to reach a comprehensive peace agreement given the extensive damage and disagreements. Serry cites historical examples like North and South Korea, and India and Pakistan, where ceasefires have been more common than peace treaties.
He elaborates on the importance of a durable ceasefire, drawing parallels to the non-aggression agreement between India and Pakistan following their war. Such an agreement could be significant for Ukraine's aspirations of EU and NATO membership, as it would prevent Ukraine from maintaining a stance that could lead to future conflict.
However, Serry cautions against replicating the Minsk agreements, which pressured Ukraine to make unilateral concessions and amend its constitution. He hopes the next ceasefire will be well-monitored and verified, as the weak monitoring mechanism in Minsk led to its fragility. The main lesson for him is that Ukraine's armed forces must remain strong.
While he isn't as pessimistic about Russia potentially restarting the war, he emphasizes that Ukraine's strength is essential. Ukraine has reportedly joined forces with its partners to negotiate an end to the war.
Written by urgent.news from Ukrinform - Politics's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
