Trump's threats put Oman's balancing act under growing pressure - analysis
This is the second time that Trump has threatened Oman. It has not appeared fazed by these threats. It knows that it has to navigate a changed regional and international landscape.
For years, Oman remained a largely unnoticed player in Middle East affairs, devoid of conflicts or extremist threats. A longtime friend of the West and a neutral regional power, the sultanate kept a low profile amid shifting alliances and rising tensions. However, recent events have thrust Oman into the international spotlight.
In the past seven months, the US and Israeli war on Iran has forced Oman to confront a new reality. President Donald Trump has threatened to bomb the sultanate if it "gets in the way" of US policy regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has not deterred Oman. The country has proven capable of navigating the evolving regional and global landscape, despite these threats.
Oman's ability to maintain its neutrality and balance has been shaped by its pragmatic foreign policy. Since Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said took power in 1970 with British support, Muscat has cultivated close security ties with the United Kingdom and the US, showcasing its unique role as a quiet mediator in the region. From facilitating US-Iran talks that led to the 2015 nuclear agreement to hosting discussions on Yemen and other crises, Oman has consistently advocated for dialogue and stability.
Despite this reputation, Oman is increasingly aware of its vulnerability in the face of regional conflicts, particularly the war sparked by the Hamas October 7 attack. The sultanate, under Sultan Haitham bin Tariq, has largely maintained a balanced approach; however, its role as a mediator has now placed it squarely in the crosshairs of US threats.
Trump's recent warnings echo similar rhetoric aimed at NATO allies and South Korea, highlighting the unique challenges Oman faces as a nation situated at the southern extremity of the Strait of Hormuz.
As tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate, Oman's diplomatic efforts have come under increasing scrutiny. The US threat against Oman could serve as a warning to prevent the country from engaging in backroom dealings with Iran. Iran seeks to rope Oman into its demands for fees for ships using the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a move that could further tighten Iran's grip on the waterway.
The world, however, is wary of such an outcome, as it would grant Iran control over critical strategic waterways, potentially disrupting global trade and security.
The US has long advocated for freedom of navigation, ensuring that ships can freely navigate the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's pressure on this vital passage has now drawn the US into a complex Middle Eastern conflict, with no clear resolution in sight. The White House's response to Oman's situation has been seen as counterproductive, rather than collaborative, as it shifts focus away from finding a solution.
The consequences of these threats extend beyond Oman, potentially affecting other US partners in the Gulf region. While the threats may prompt a reassessment of policies, there is little indication that they will succeed in swaying Oman's stance or convincing the US to back down. On the contrary, such tactics could push other countries to view the US as an unreliable ally, further complicating an already volatile geopolitical landscape.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
