Tror boligmarkedet i Oslo snur neste år: – Den store jokeren

Oslo's housing market is poised for significant changes next year, with experts predicting a potential dip in prices after a period of stagnation. Oslo has historically lagged behind other major cities like Bergen, Stavanger, and Tromsø in terms of home price growth. Senior macro and interest rate strategist Sara Midtgaard from Nordea attributes this to Oslo being the most interest rate-sensitive city in the country. She notes that there have been few unsold homes in Oslo since the previous year's financial crisis.

A rise in interest rates by the Norges Bank and expectations of further increases caused Oslo's market to suffer negatively. However, macroeconomist Nora Vie Holm from Handelsbanken points out a structural issue in Oslo's housing market due to insufficient housing growth relative to population increase over time. She also mentions increased supply due to a higher rate of rental property sales contributing to the market.

Midtgaard suggests that wages could potentially rise in 2027 and 2028, which could help push up housing prices in Oslo. She believes there might be more rental properties put on the market in the fall, further increasing supply and potentially driving prices down. However, if fewer rental properties are added to the market next year, Oslo's market may see weak price growth again.

Vie Holm does not believe the current market situation will persist. She anticipates rental property sales will not last indefinitely and that underlying factors will become more significant again. Handelsbanken's latest projections suggest that Oslo's housing prices will start to rise again in 2027 and 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 4.8% in 2027 and 7.5% in 2028. This could make Oslo the locomotive of the Norwegian housing market once more.