The US$46,300 question: How low can Bitcoin go before buyers return

The US$46,300 question remains a significant concern for Bitcoin investors, as the digital asset struggles to break above the US$70,000 level last seen in May. Despite favorable macroeconomic conditions, a closer look at market indicators reveals deep underlying weakness. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which estimates buying and selling pressure in the United States market, has remained negative for 90 consecutive days, standing at -0.1066 percent.

This persistent discount indicates a lack of domestic buying interest and suggests that market participants anticipate further downside risk.

Smart money has refused to accumulate more digital assets at current valuations, as market sentiment remains largely bearish. Bollinger Bands and the Relative Strength Index further support the declining price, while massive accumulation by large holders has failed to reverse the downward trend. Even with significant buying from whale wallets, the price action has ignored this accumulation.

Buy-side support below the current price continues to erode, with a significant concentration of buy orders removed from the market. This has weakened the market liquidity buffer, leaving fewer buy-side orders to cushion further declines. Large players are stepping away from defending the current valuation levels, and Wall Street's record highs are driven by factors unrelated to the cryptocurrency market.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman at Strategy, explained that capital is flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure, creating headwinds for Bitcoin. Institutional investors prefer the tangible revenue growth of technology giants over Bitcoin's speculative store-of-value proposition, further limiting liquidity for alternative assets.

The digital currency has formed a bear pennant around US$60,000 to US$65,000, indicating a potential break below rising support and a possible drop toward the lower target zone of US$45,000 to US$52,000. Traders should respect these technical breakdown signals and adjust their risk management strategies accordingly.