The Iran-US MoU ends today: how things stand, what lies ahead

Two months ago, Iran and the United States signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending a war that began with Israel and the US striking Iran in February, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The MoU covered various issues, including control of the Strait of Hormuz and rebuilding Iran's economy, which had been impacted by Western economic sanctions.

However, the agreement has been violated on multiple occasions due to a lack of trust between the two nations. Israel, for instance, attacked Lebanon, violating the MoU's first provision, while the US also attacked Iran in retaliation for Iran's strikes on its military bases in West Asia. Despite talks, neither side has yet agreed to extend the MoU or reach a final deal.

Iran announced it is working on a joint statement with Oman regarding the management of ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but there is no confirmation from either Iran or the US on broader negotiations. The breakdown of the MoU raises concerns about the future of peace in the region, especially as the US's role in another West Asian conflict has yet to yield satisfactory results.

West Asia negotiator Jared Kushner, along with Trump's son-in-law, met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas chief Khalil al-Hayya in the days following the MoU's expiration. These meetings are linked to the Trump-chaired Board of Peace's peace plan for Gaza, which hinges on Hamas's disarmament and Israeli forces' withdrawal from Gaza.

However, Netanyahu has stated that Israel will not withdraw until Hamas gives up all its weapons, complicating the peace process. As such, West Asia remains uncertain, with the US seemingly unable to prevent the consequences or help parties reach a resolution.