Shares steady, dollar slips as markets pare Fed rate risks

Global shares rose slightly and the U.S. dollar dropped to its lowest level since June on Monday, following a series of weak U.S. economic indicators. An unexpected decline in retail sales was the most significant factor, prompting markets to lower expectations for an imminent rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The probability of a rate hike next month has plummeted to 30%, down significantly from over 50% a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The STOXX index, which tracks 600 large European companies, increased by 0.04%, led by resources stocks, as gold prices rose. In the U.S., the Nasdaq futures climbed 0.5%, while S&P futures gained 0.2%. The South Korean won experienced minimal reaction after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon to cut back on joint military drills with the country. Meanwhile, South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

Oil prices fluctuated as Iran urged the U.S. to concede defeat, and Trump encouraged Americans to endure higher gasoline costs during the ongoing conflict. At least 11 individuals were killed in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon on Saturday, the Lebanese health ministry reported, among the deadliest strikes since the country endorsed a U.S.-mediated peace framework with neighboring Israel.

Brent crude surged 1% to $89.42 per barrel after leaping 6% last week, while U.S. crude recovered from previous losses to rise 0.55%, having gained 5.4% in the previous week. While the Iran/Hormuz standoff remains unresolved, base case projections by Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP, suggest oil prices will range between $70 and $100 as Iran prevents prices from falling and the U.S. attempts to ease tensions whenever they exceed $100.