Russia’s Jet Drones Are Changing the Air War, Ukraine Racing to Respond

Russia is increasingly incorporating jet-powered and missile drones into its military strategy to surmount Ukrainian air defenses, with advanced iterations of the Geran and Banderol systems presenting a more elusive and swift threat, as examined by RBC-Ukraine on Monday. Senior analyst Anton Zemlyanyi of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation stated that Russia is increasingly producing large quantities of jet drones and missile drones, increasingly targeting Ukrainian territory.

The primary advantage of these faster drones is the reduced time afforded to Ukrainian air defenses to detect, track, and neutralize them, potentially enabling more targets to bypass defensive layers and reach farther from the front line.

Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, clarified that the term "jet drone" encompasses weapons with varied characteristics, including newer Geran variants such as Geran-4 and Geran-5, which approach the design and capabilities of cruise missiles. This distinction is crucial for air defense planners, as faster drones than conventional Shaheds but cheaper and potentially simpler to manufacture could provide Russia with another method for executing large-scale strikes.

However, the mass production of these jet drones is significantly hampered by the expensive and complex jet engines required.

Katkov further noted that Russia's ability to escalate production is contingent on the acquisition of jet engines from Chinese private enterprises. Eventually, Russia may endeavor to replicate the strategy employed with Shahed-type drones, initially importing components before developing domestic production and streamlining designs for mass manufacturing. The production of composite materials and other components also poses challenges for Russia.

Ukraine is developing cheaper interceptor drones, akin to its P1-Sun, to counter the higher cost of intercepting the rapidly advancing Russian drones. However, the efficacy of these systems against the swiftest Russian targets remains uncertain. Other air defense systems, including Mistral, Skynex, and Gepard, may also be utilized against certain high-speed targets, contingent on their specific features.

Ukraine is not merely reacting to the Russian shift towards jet drones. Ukrainian developers initiated the creation of jet-powered drones prior to Russia, with systems like Bars and Palyanytsya already employed for long-range strikes within and outside of Russian-occupied territories. Nevertheless, the trade-offs associated with speed are evident.

Superior engines and designs augment production costs, while larger engines can constrain the warhead capacity of the drones. For Ukraine, the challenge lies in balancing the speed, range, payload, and cost of the drones, rather than solely developing the fastest possible drone.

Experts cited by RBC-Ukraine do not anticipate jet drones to entirely supplant conventional Shaheds or cruise missiles. Instead, they represent an intermediate category between conventional long-range attack drones and cruise missiles. Russia's primary allure in utilizing jet drones lies in their combination of heightened speed with mass production capabilities, while Ukraine must devise a strategy that integrates enhanced air defenses, more affordable interceptor drones, and its expanding fleet of high-speed long-range weapons. The outcome is unlikely to see the disappearance of Shaheds or cruise missiles.