Rupee falls 17 paise to 95.59 against US dollar in early trade

The Indian rupee experienced a 17 paise decline to 95.59 against the US dollar in early Monday trading, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Forex traders noted that investor caution emerged following the Reserve Bank of India's announcement on August 14 that the swap facility for FCNR (B) deposits would be accessible solely for deposits received until August 31.

This cut-off date was previously September 30 under the FCNR (B) scheme, where banks provide higher interest rates to attract foreign currency deposits. The Reserve Bank's concessional swap facility, meant to spur foreign currency inflows, has amassed $56.84 billion by August 13. The rupee initially opened at 95.50 but weakened to 95.59, a 17 paise drop from its prior close. Prior to Friday's close, the rupee had climbed 3 paise, closing at 95.42 against the US dollar.

Following the inflow of nearly $50 billion in foreign exchange, the central bank revealed the swap facility would now only cover deposits mobilized up to August 31, 2026. Although this support from the inflows remains substantial, market participants anticipate a shift away from this temporary buffer, as per CR Forex Advisors MD, Amit Pabari. The support from these inflows is still significant, but the overall risk-reward outlook for the rupee is currently leaning towards weakness.

Technically, the 95.20-95.30 range is expected to function as a crucial support level. As long as this barrier remains intact, the USD/INR pair could potentially move towards the 96.20-96.50 range in the forthcoming days, according to Pabari. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 99.54, down 0.12 percent.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading at a higher $88.94 per barrel in futures trade. The Indian equity market also saw a decline, with the Sensex falling 284.85 points to 77,717.05, and the Nifty dropping 69.25 points to 24,297.05. On the foreign exchange front, foreign institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 508.12 crore on a net basis on Friday.

The Reserve Bank reported that India's forex reserves rose $14.136 billion to $707.002 billion during the week ended August 7, marking a $10.512 billion increase to $692.866 billion in the previous week that ended on July 31.