Putin Revealed His True Intentions With Japan by Visiting Disputed Islands
The Russian president's visit to the Kuril Islands is a strategic blunder in Moscow's rarely straightforward relationship with Tokyo.
President Vladimir Putin's visit to the disputed island of Iturup, also known as Etorofu, on August 13, 2024, marked a significant deviation from his usual routine of making brief appearances in other regions of Russia. This particular trip was unique because Iturup is one of the four Russian-held islands claimed by Japan as its Northern Territories.
These islands were historically part of Japan but were occupied by Soviet forces following the Soviet Union's declaration of war on August 8, 1945. Despite Japan's announcement of surrender on August 15, 1945, the Soviet occupation of the islands was not fully completed until September 1945.
The issue of these islands remains contentious, with Japan insisting that the territorial dispute be resolved before a peace treaty with Russia can be signed. As a result, Putin's visit to Iturup sparked outrage in Tokyo, leading to a strong protest from the Russian ambassador to Japan and reports of protests near the Russian embassy in Tokyo.
Several factors have contributed to Putin's decision to visit the disputed islands. The first is the upcoming parliamentary election on September 18-20, which the Kremlin aims to influence to limit cheating and capitalize on growing war fatigue. The Russian Far East, including the Kuril Islands, is a particular concern due to its history of anti-regime protests.
The Kremlin likely hoped that a pre-election visit would generate patriotic support for Putin, as the majority of Russians, regardless of political affiliation, strongly favor Russia's retention of the disputed islands.
The second factor is the Kremlin's desire to punish Japan for its robust response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who served from 2021 to 2024, Japan imposed wide-ranging sanctions against Russia, including sanctions against Putin himself. Japan has also provided significant financial assistance to Ukraine, pledging $20 billion in support.
Additionally, Japan has deepened its cooperation with NATO, joining the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), which facilitates the purchase of U.S.-made military equipment for Ukraine.
By visiting the disputed islands, Putin aims to send a message to Japan that if the country continues to take actions that Moscow regards as unfriendly, Russia will retaliate. This harsh tactic is expected to discourage Japan from future confrontations, but it may backfire, as Japan is unlikely to back down. Putin's approach in the past has been more subtle, employing a "good cop, bad cop" strategy to build rapport with Japan while subtly advancing Russian interests.
However, this tactic has proven unsuccessful in recent years, and the recent visit to Iturup signals a shift towards a more aggressive stance.
Written by urgent.news from The Moscow Times - Opinion's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
