New Zealand Dollar: RBNZ seen on hold in September – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that softer New Zealand inflation data make a September rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unlikely after July’s move.
Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur predicts a potential pause on interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in September, following softer inflation data. Core inflation is easing, but the central bank is expected to maintain a hawkish stance due to Middle East risks. Inflation figures released this month indicate a likely no rate increase for the second consecutive time, following the July hike.
Despite the monthly index falling to 3.5% year-over-year in July, excluding gasoline and diesel prices, the rate was only 2.2% in July, down from 2.8% in June. The decline in the core rate is a positive sign for the central bank. Strong credit card sales provide confidence in the economy's continued resilience. However, the weaker economic environment is expected to continue impacting the currency over the long term.
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