New study: Hormuz just one of many shipping chokepoints

Oxford Economics warns that the Strait of Hormuz is just one of many shipping chokepoints that can disrupt global trade. The key risk is not permanent closures, but delays, diversions, reduced capacity and higher costs. Progress in reopening disrupted routes is likely uneven this year due to ongoing violence in the Red Sea and the short-lived June memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.

Over half of global trade passes through Asia's Malacca and Taiwan straits, making disruptions there potentially far-reaching. The geography of maritime trade has created numerous points where localized crises can have systemwide effects. Geopolitics is a major driver of chokepoint disruptions, but the threat is evolving beyond just geographic constraints to include control, taxation or threats for strategic leverage.

Climate conditions like El Niño also pose risks to maritime trade. Companies need to assess their vulnerability to transport exposure not just through supplier diversification, but by examining which chokepoints and ports are embedded in their major sourcing lanes and how alternative routes would impact costs and efficiency.