Nebius's Revenue Is Forecast to Roughly Quadruple Year Over Year. Here's Why Analysts Are Still Debating Whether That's Enough to Justify the Stock.
Nebius is one of the fastest-growing businesses in AI infrastructure, but it's pricey.
Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) has been making waves in the stock market this year, driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The stock has surged more than 200% this year, with a remarkable jump of nearly 50% last week alone. Analysts are buzzing about Nebius' revenue, which is projected to nearly quadruple this year, but the stock remains in a gray zone. Some investors view Nebius as a future AI infrastructure giant, while others see it as a capital-intensive niche player priced for perfection.
The debate centers on what Nebius is actually building, the durability of its revenue, and whether the current valuation assumes most of the upside. Nebius' growth is impressive, with revenue hitting $399 million in Q1 2026, up an astonishing 684% compared to $51 million a year earlier and a 75% increase from Q4. The AI cloud unit alone generated $389.7 million in Q1, marking an 841% year-over-year increase. By Q2, total revenue reached $582.3 million, as AI cloud sales rose nearly sixfold, surpassing analyst expectations.
Management is projecting revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion for the year, which would be roughly quadruple 2025 revenue. This projected revenue would place Nebius in midtier hyperscaler territory based solely on the top line.
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