Märkte Insight: Trumps Zollpolitik sorgt für eine kuriose Sonderkonjunktur in den USA

In April 2025, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on all trading partners of the United States, claiming it would be a "Day of Liberation" and usher in a "rebirth of American industry." However, his grand promises were not fulfilled. The Supreme Court overturned the tariffs in February 2026, but this decision led to a peculiar economic cycle.

This windfall benefits only a few savvy investors, not the overall economy as Trump had hoped. Trump had overstepped his authority by using a 1970s economic emergency law to bypass Congress and impose tariffs without their approval. The Supreme Court nearly nullified these tariffs a year after their introduction. The government had to repay the tariffs collected up until then.

In May 2026, the US government paid out more in tariff refunds than it collected through tariffs. According to data from the US Treasury analyzed by investment managers Apollo and Deutsche Bank, the refunds amounted to nearly 50 billion euros. Major US companies like FedEx, Amazon, Nike, and Apple received public notices of refunds ranging from $600 million to $2 billion.

Amazon planned to return this money to customers. Other companies are excited about their special windfall. "Tax refunds boost corporate profits and stimulate GDP growth," says Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo. The Federal Reserve's Atlanta branch estimates a "live" economic growth of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2026, with refinements accounting for 0.2 percentage points.

The Federal Reserve must compensate companies for the unlawfully levied tariffs. Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect US companies to receive between 90 and 100 billion dollars in refunds in the coming months. Hedge funds anticipated these refunds after doubts arose about the legality of Trump's tariffs and purchased claims from companies for tariff refunds at bargain prices.

Some financially troubled companies even sold these claims at low prices before the Supreme Court's decision. Hedge funds paid only 20 to 40 cents for every dollar in claims before February 2026, but their value skyrocketed afterward. The US President can claim that his tariff policy boosted the economy this quarter, albeit in a way he did not expect.