LOCAL ELECTIONS 2026 OP-ED: Voters’ impossible question — how to factor in parties’ coalition choices?

In South Africa's upcoming local government elections in 2026, voters will face an unprecedented decision: one that not only stems from a party's manifesto but also from the party's potential coalition partners. This is the third article in a series that explores coalitions and their implications for the 2026 local government elections. The first two parts of the series can be found in Part 1 and Part 2.

In South Africa, a significant number of coalitions are expected in the local government elections of November 2026. This is the most likely outcome, regardless of which party secures the largest share of the vote in a particular municipality. Few parties will gain enough votes to govern independently. Consequently, voters must consider a party's coalition-partner choices when casting their votes.

Coalition politics in South Africa are still in their infancy, with little emphasis on policy-based cooperation. There is a lack of legislation giving order and legal standing to such deals, which makes it difficult for voters to predict which parties will align with whom. In many cases, parties prioritize securing a majority by forming coalitions rather than sticking to their election promises.

Politicians take calculated risks when it comes to forming coalitions, aiming to secure a total of "50 plus one" council seats. South African parties have demonstrated their flexibility in aligning with any party necessary to achieve this majority. However, the ANC has shown some reluctance, refusing to align with certain parties. The ANC has co-governed with the EFF in multiple municipalities, often through "soft" coalition agreements rather than formal coalitions.

Numerous factors influence coalition formation, including vote proportions, seat deficits, inter-party dynamics, and personal relationships. While smaller parties may not be the preferred coalition partners for major parties, they are not considered non-grata. In various municipalities, the DA is not the ANC's coalition partner of choice, while the EFF's confidence-and-supply support has sometimes been crucial to minority coalitions.

In conclusion, voters in South Africa's 2026 local government elections must consider a party's coalition-partner choices when casting their ballots. The numbers and specific dynamics surrounding each election will ultimately shape the outcome and the extent of party support. The stage is set for an election in which policies and coalition choices will be inextricably linked.