Indian rupee seen weakening to 97 per dollar by FY2026-27-end: BMI
BMI expects the rupee to weaken to ₹97 per US dollar by the end of FY2026-27, which runs from April 2026 to March 2027, and to ₹99 per dollar by the end of FY2027-28, from ₹95.4 currently
The Indian rupee is forecasted to continue depreciating against the US dollar over the next two fiscal years, according to BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions. The research firm predicts the rupee will fall to ₹97 per dollar by the end of FY2026-27 and to ₹99 per dollar by the end of FY2027-28, from its current level of ₹95.4. This depreciation is attributed to factors such as higher energy prices, global risk aversion, and less favorable interest-rate differentials between India and the US.
The rupee has already weakened by around 4% since the onset of the US-Iran conflict. The country's heavy reliance on imported energy, with about 90% of its oil requirements coming from abroad, is expected to continue exerting pressure on the currency. Despite recent government measures aimed at attracting foreign capital, BMI believes these steps will not be sufficient to counterbalance the currency's downward trajectory.
The resolution of the US-Iran conflict is seen as a key factor in stabilizing the rupee, with a 35% probability assigned to an escalation or prolonged conflict. Other potential risks include the impact of a more severe El Niño weather pattern and the possibility of higher US tariffs on Indian crude oil imports.
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