Indian Rupee holds ground despite RBI ending FCNR forex swap window early

The Indian Rupee showed resilience against the US Dollar on Monday, following two days of declines. The USD/INR pair traded near 95.50, but the Rupee could face challenges in the future due to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) terminating its forex swap facility for FCNR deposits one month early. The RBI's policy measures, including the deposit swap window, successfully attracted nearly $57 billion.

Market participants anticipate the USD/INR pair to move between 95.00 and 95.50 this week, with some predicting a short-term surge from overseas clients looking to secure deposits before the facility closes on August 31. Foreign portfolio flows and regular hedging activities will also impact the currency's movement. Investors will pay close attention to the minutes of the RBI's August policy meeting, where interest rates remained unchanged.

Analysts forecast that the RBI may start a gradual rate-hiking cycle in December or maintain its pause through the end of 2026. India's inflation remains relatively contained, with headline CPI rising slightly to 4.45% year-over-year in July from 4.38% in June. This development supports the RBI's decision to keep interest rates steady.

The USD/INR pair faces downward pressure as the US Dollar declines due to weaker-than-expected US economic data and revised central bank expectations. The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales fell by 0.6% in July, below the market consensus of 0.1% growth. The Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have diminished following weaker US data, including CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Traders are pricing in a 33.1% chance of a rate hike next month, down from 44% last week.