If SA keeps failing to implement plans, it’s time to rethink planning
We need to consider what comes after Vision 2030, what future South Africa we want, and what stands in the way of us reaching this goal.
South Africa is nearing the end of its National Development Plan: Vision 2030. This marks a critical juncture to evaluate whether the country's planning efforts have been sufficient to turn ambitions into reality. While South Africa has numerous plans, frameworks, policies, targets, and implementation strategies, the failure to translate these into jobs, infrastructure, services, and economic opportunities is felt directly by the people.
The National Development Plan (NDP) set a vision of a more prosperous, inclusive, and poverty-free South Africa. However, the 10-year review revealed that the country was not on track to meet key targets, especially in poverty, inequality, and unemployment. The problem lies not just in implementation but also in the broader planning approach.
South Africa's developmental challenges are interconnected rather than isolated. Issues like weak governance affecting infrastructure, poor education impacting employability, inadequate infrastructure limiting economic participation, spatial inequality separating people from jobs and services, and fiscal constraints limiting investment all contribute to the country's problems. However, these challenges are often addressed through departmental, sectoral, and institutional silos.
Planning should start with identifying the constraints that hinder development. Before deciding on what actions the government should take, planning should ask what conditions must be met for an intervention to succeed. Key questions include whether the institution responsible has the capability to implement the intervention, if necessary skills are available, if infrastructure is in place, if the intervention is fully funded, and if procurement systems can deliver.
These are not technical questions to be answered after a plan is approved, but rather fundamental planning questions.
One area that deserves more attention is governance. The Auditor-General reported R42.58 billion in irregular expenditure by national and provincial government institutions in 2024/25, with procurement and contract-management weaknesses among the contributing factors. The real question should not be about the amount of irregular expenditure, but about the institutional weaknesses that produced it, who bears the consequences, and what can be done to prevent these weaknesses from recurring in the future.
Looking ahead, the labor market presents another reason to rethink planning. The number of unemployed young people aged 15-34 in South Africa increased to five million in the second quarter of 2026, pushing the youth unemployment rate to 47.4%. These figures are not just a snapshot of today's crisis, but a clear signal about the future.
Planning should anticipate the millions of people who will enter the labor market in the coming years, considering factors like where they will live, what skills they will bring, which sectors can absorb them, and what productive capacity and infrastructure will exist to employ them.
Theory of change should play a more central role in national planning. It's crucial to understand the connection between interventions, constraints, resources, and capabilities. Planning should not only focus on addressing current unemployment but also on preventing new cohorts from joining the ranks of the unemployed as they enter the labor market.
Written by urgent.news from Daily Maverick's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
