How Old Farmer's Almanac Fall Forecast Compares to National Weather Service
Fall is weeks away, and two closely watched long-range forecasts are already offering markedly different outlooks.
The Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service (NWS) have released differing long-range fall forecasts, with significant contrasts across various regions of the United States. The Almanac predicts cooler temperatures and increased precipitation for much of the East Coast and Pacific Coast, while the NWS anticipates warmer temperatures and a more average precipitation pattern.
The most notable divergence exists in the Northeast, where the Almanac expects below-average temperatures and above-normal rainfall, contrasting with the NWS's forecast of warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. This difference is also evident in the Southeast, where the Almanac predicts cooler temperatures with wet conditions in Southern Florida and dry conditions in other states, while the NWS expects average precipitation with above-normal temperatures.
In the Pacific Northwest, the Almanac foresees cooler and wetter conditions, with some areas receiving up to 3 inches more rainfall than normal during September, while the NWS predicts below-normal precipitation and potentially warmer temperatures. These discrepancies are partly due to the forecasting methodologies employed by each organization.
The Almanac relies on solar science, climatology, and meteorology, incorporating 30-year statistical averages from governmental meteorological agencies. In contrast, the NWS's forecasts are probabilistic and can be extended up to a year in advance, accounting for potential El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. As the autumn approaches, residents in the affected regions will have to wait and see which forecast holds true.
Written by urgent.news from Newsweek's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
