How Mojtaba Khamenei reshuffled his hardline team for long war, unrest at home

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is reshuffling his hardline team in preparation for a prolonged conflict, according to recent appointments. The former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps during the Iran-Iraq war, Mohsen Rezaei, has been appointed head of the Supreme National Security Council. Hossein Taeb, a cleric and former intelligence chief, has taken charge of the Basij, a paramilitary group often used to suppress protests.

New armed forces generals, IRGC chiefs, and naval commanders have also been appointed, all belonging to the generation that experienced the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. These appointments signal Khamenei's trust in the old guard, who are seen as more reliable than younger, more pragmatic options. While diplomacy with the United States continues, Khamenei appears to favor a strategy of negotiating while maintaining military readiness.

This approach is influenced by Iran's concerns about the economic fallout of the war and the potential for domestic unrest. The Basij's expanded role in domestic surveillance and repression may play a significant part in this strategy. Khamenei's approach reflects a belief that Iran can withstand economic sanctions longer than the United States can tolerate the consequences of lost energy supplies and political pressure.