FTSE 100 today: Stocks rise as soft U.S. retail data trims Fed rate bets

British stocks climbed on Monday as unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales diminished expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. The FTSE 100 gained 0.26% by 03:25 ET (07:25 GMT). Germany's DAX fell 0.03%, while France's CAC 40 edged down 0.05%. The British pound strengthened 0.22% to $1.3562. U.S. retail sales declined 0.6% in July, significantly below forecasts of a 0.1% increase and signaling the most substantial monthly drop since May 2025.

This decline prompted a drop in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, bolstering optimism heading into Monday's market session. Iran's vice president claimed Tehran would prevail in "economic warfare" as the U.S. prepared to announce fresh sanctions this week. The 60-day U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, signed in June to cease hostilities, expired on Monday without any extension talks.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan established the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, which received a favorable response from Washington. Analysts at Jefferies stated that a clear resolution to the situation was uncertain, describing it as "no war and no peace" with the Strait of Hormuz potentially closed. The only alternative could involve a compromise where some shipping traffic resumes while the U.S. and Iran negotiate a deal, though this arrangement might only endure until the U.S. mid-term elections.

UK housing figures added to a cautious domestic outlook. Home prices dropped 2% month-on-month in August to an average of £364,999, the steepest annual decline since December 2023. Available homes for sale reached a 12-year high. Rightmove revised its 2026 price forecast to a potential decrease of 0% to minus 2%, from an earlier projection of a 2% increase.