Euro: Bullish momentum eyes mid‑1.17s against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report a bullish momentum for the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar, with EUR/USD potentially reaching mid-1.17s. The Eurozone's economic resilience and narrowing yield spreads versus the US are supporting this positive trend. Short-term technical analysis shows bullish momentum in both intraday and daily charts, while the weekly study is close to turning positive.

The analysts predict an extension through the 1.1625/50 range, which could then open up further gains to the mid-1.17s. Support is identified at 1.1550/75. Although the yield gap between the Eurozone and the US remains significant, the 2-year yield spread has narrowed to -136 basis points, the smallest US yield advantage since May.

The EUR has been stronger for a fourth week in a row, and the short-term bull objective is expected to extend gains. Meanwhile, GBP/USD also strengthens, hitting fresh three-month highs around 1.3570. A fading expectation of a Fed rate hike in September is contributing to the Greenback's decline, helping Cable maintain its bullish momentum ahead of key UK data.

EUR/USD is currently trading near the 1.1600 region, retaining support from persistent US Dollar weakness as investors reduce expectations of Fed rate hikes following disappointing US economic data. Gold has gained for the second consecutive day, surpassing $4,400 per troy ounce. Bitcoin is slightly higher around $63,500, supported by improving risk sentiment, despite a mild correction the previous week and mild outflows from institutional demand.

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in September and for the rest of the year, according to a Reuters poll conducted between August 12 and 17.