Claims Hegseth ‘on verge of losing job’ raise questions about future US-China defence ties

Speculation is growing that Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth may be on the verge of losing his job, raising concerns about the future of US-China defense ties, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. The uncertainty stems from the ongoing deadlock over Iran and numerous negative media reports, with mounting concerns for the USS Abraham Lincoln's crew facing food shortages and poor sanitary conditions due to the ship being at sea for nine months.

The lack of a "solid breakthrough" on the Iran war has particularly upset President Donald Trump, who has stated that relations between the US and China are better than they have been in over a decade. One source familiar with US-China military engagements said there had been contact at almost all levels during Trump's second term, with relations improving significantly since Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing in May.

Hegseth had previously praised the state of US-China defense relations, stating that they were "better than they've been in many years." However, Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University's Institute of International Studies, suggested that Trump might want to find someone to take responsibility for the Iran war, and that Cabinet reshuffles are common ahead of US midterm elections.

If Hegseth were to be removed from his position, it might impact communication between the US and Chinese militaries, as new relationships would need to be built. However, US sources believe Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon undersecretary for policy, could handle the transition well, as he has been the point man for US-China military talks and met with Chinese defence officials regularly.

US-China military contacts are currently described as "very good," and a new defense chief would likely have little effect on military-to-military engagement unless the replacement is a China hawk. Zhao noted that if Colby remained at the Pentagon, there would be continuity in military exchanges. Military-level talks between the US and Chinese militaries have resumed, partly due to Trump and Xi's agreement to build a relationship based on strategic stability.

With Xi set to visit the US next month, strengthening military-to-military relations is expected to be a key agenda item.