Canada CPI expected to show rising inflation in July

Canada's July Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be closely monitored by markets, as they provide an update on price pressures following the Bank of Canada's July 15 gathering where officials kept the interest rate steady at 2.25%, in line with analyst consensus. Economists expect the headline CPI to rise by 2.9% for the year in July, up from June's 2.8% annual increase.

Monthly price increases are forecasted at 0.7%. The bank will closely watch its core measure, which excludes food and energy costs, expected to rise by 2.2%, up from the 2.1% YoY gain in June. Heightened geopolitical volatility is likely to maintain inflationary pressures, exacerbated by US tariffs on domestic consumer prices. The Bank of Canada's preferred gauges, CPI-Common, Trimmed Mean, and Median, declined in June to 2.6%, 1.8%, and 1.9%, respectively.

Inflation appears to have lost momentum in June, though market participants remain skeptical about its continuation into July. At its latest meeting, the BoC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, considering reduced economic growth, current slack, and Governor Tiff Macklem's caution against successive rate hikes. The focus of traders will be on the July inflation data, released by Statistics Canada at 12:30 GMT, as a potential catalyst for USD/CAD, which has recently broken below the 1.3900 support level.

If inflation reverses the recent decline, bets on further rate hikes may increase, benefiting the Canadian Dollar.