British Pound: Data-heavy week risks BoE repricing – ING
Chris Turner at ING notes that a busier United Kingdom (UK) data calendar, including jobs, wages and July Consumer Price Index (CPI), could challenge the 55bp of Bank of England (BoE) tightening still priced in.
ING's Chris Turner warns that a more data-heavy week for the United Kingdom could pressure the Bank of England to reprioritize monetary policy. ING's UK economist James Smith anticipates the data, including jobs, wages, and July CPI releases, to be too weak to justify the current 55 basis points of tightening priced in. This could enable EUR/GBP to move back toward the 0.8575-0.8585 range, while ING maintains slightly negative views on the British Pound.
After a quiet spell, the UK's data calendar picks up with jobs and wage data on Monday, followed by the July CPI figures on Wednesday. James Smith believes the data will not be robust enough to support the 55 basis points of tightening still priced into UK money market curves. Although M&A inflows may provide temporary support, ING remains cautiously bearish on Sterling.
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