Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on $190-200 billion 2028 revenue forecast, sources say

Anthropic, the rapidly growing AI company, is set to undergo one of the largest IPOs ever, with Wall Street valuing it based on projected revenue in 2028. According to multiple sources, the company anticipates generating between $190 billion and $200 billion in revenue by that time, a figure not previously disclosed. This projection is significantly higher than the company's current $47 billion revenue "run rate," which was disclosed in May.

The extensive growth investors are asked to fund is evident in the enterprise value-to-revenue multiples being used by bankers and investors for the valuation. Using revenue multiples is common for high-growth software companies, but extending forecasts two years ahead is less typical, reflecting Anthropic's rapid expansion and the challenges of setting benchmarks for a firm still heavily investing in AI infrastructure.

The speed of spending on AI investment has impacted other tech stocks, including some considered comparable to Anthropic. The approach taken for Anthropic's valuation mirrors that of other fast-growing companies, like Cerebras Systems and SpaceX, which projected 2028 revenue expectations during their IPO processes. Benchmarking against public companies like Cloudflare, Palantir, and SpaceX provides investors with a sense of how Anthropic is valued relative to those with similar growth profiles and business models.

Palantir's valuation of 53 times expected revenue and SpaceX and Cloudflare's multiples based on 2026 revenue expectations offer different perspectives on Anthropic's potential. While traditional metrics like EBITDA do not fully capture Anthropic's economics at scale, the company's revenue growth, projected to grow more than tenfold annually, demonstrates that investors are confident in its ability to generate higher revenue and margins in the future.