5일 연속 상승장에 ‘방향성 베팅’ 늘어…눈치싸움 중 7천 돌파 관건

Over the past week, the Korean stock market (COSPI) has seen a resurgence in "directional betting," as investors bet on whether the market will continue to rise or fall. As COSPI approaches the 7,000-point milestone, both upward and downward bets are becoming increasingly intense. According to data from the Financial Investment Association, credit trading firms' (often referred to as "빚투" or "borrowing to invest") reserves reached their lowest level of 27.4 trillion won on April 17th, but from April 10th, they surged above 30 trillion won, reaching 30.9 trillion won as of April 13th.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, two of the largest companies making up half of the market's trading volume, both saw their credit trading firm reserves increase from a combined 8.4 trillion won on April 4th to 10 trillion won as of April 13th. Typically, credit trading firms are seen as leveraged instruments, betting on the rising prices of indices or individual stocks.

COSPI's volatility between 6,200 and 6,300 over the past week triggered renewed interest in leveraged betting. Researcher Kim Hong-yong from Keimyung Securities noted that "leveraged betting has increased during August's rebound." Additionally, the amount of stocks being sold short by institutional and foreign investors has risen.

The aggregate trading reserves, which serve as a rough gauge of such activity, stood at 173 trillion won as of last Thursday, 40 trillion won more than the lowest point seen since March 4th (133 trillion won). ETF CHECK data shows that inverse ETFs (which track indices in reverse) were among the top three funds for individual net purchases last week.

Despite the COSPI's 9,000-point milestone, there is growing skepticism about the market's ability to recover, as it has failed to do so for over two months. Analyst Park Jung-hyun from Shinhan Investment Research views individual investors' psychology as still "cold." The market expects a clearer direction by the end of the month, with a focus on whether COSPI will hold the 7,000-point level.