Waymo is eating into the ride-hailing market in some cities. The fallout for human drivers stays fuzzy.

Waymo's robotaxis captured a significant portion of ride-hailing revenue in major cities, including San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, according to third-party data. Waymo took 15% to 19% of rider spending in these markets, suggesting a notable impact on human drivers. However, the exact effects on drivers are not yet clear.

According to Gad Allon, a Wharton professor who studies the gig economy, the impact would likely manifest as reduced utilization, longer wait times, fewer trips per hour, and unpaid repositioning. This is because driver supply is flexible, so any initial effects would likely be subtle. The data suggests that Waymo's share of gross bookings remained stable in the mid-teens across the three markets through June, even as it expanded its service areas.

Uber's CFO shared the same Yipit data on X, emphasizing that the company uses internal tracking for decision-making. Despite the potential impact on drivers, the displacement may not be as visible as visible layoffs, as drivers often work fewer hours or opt out of the platform altogether.