The AI trade got crushed. The bull market barely noticed: Chart of the Day

The bull market for technology stocks continued to surge, while the forward price-to-earnings ratio for the sector fell about 30% from a year earlier. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon occurred as tech companies' expected earnings jumped roughly 80% over the past year. The S&P 500 was near a record high, and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) had its strongest surge in history.

Meanwhile, the PHLX Semiconductor Index showed a stronger surge than in March 2000. Tech prices rose around 40%, but expected earnings increased by 80%, causing the forward P/E to drop. This surge in tech stocks happened without dragging the whole market down, unlike previous bear markets. However, the sustainability of this rally depends on whether those expected profits materialize.

Big Tech is investing heavily in AI, and if the capacity gets overbuilt or the economy weakens, analysts may cut future profit forecasts.