The United States is urging us to "trust and follow," but... [Moon Jung-in column]

Last August 10, Elbridge Thomas Colby, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, made a statement in a Manila lecture. He said, "We prioritize Asia." "The United States is not retreating from Asia, but rather the opposite." "The consistent goal of the United States is to maintain a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region."

"To achieve this, we must maintain a steadfast baseline posture of deterrence." In effect, confirming the previous strategy to contain China's South Pacific expansion. He also pointed out that considering the United States as an unreliable partner is a grave mistake. The Trump administration, based on common sense, is pursuing a flexible, realist approach.

The U.S. should not take the security support for granted and the ally and partner nations in the region must contribute appropriately for joint defense. He specifically stated that the 'U.S. absence in the middle powers alliance' is a hollow and useless attempt. He emphasized that genuine deterrence comes from actual deployment of hard power and the political will to use it, stating that only the United States can possess this unique capability.

On August 5, Colby made three main points during a closed-door briefing of the Strategic Command's 'Deterrence Symposium' in Omaha, Nebraska. First, a conventional war with nuclear weapons could lead to a larger regional war, which is more concerning than a large-scale attack on U.S. soil. Second, light-touch tactical nuclear weapons could be a rational nuclear option in such a scenario.

Lastly, the highest leadership in the United States is currently reviewing these nuclear weapon use guidelines. This has led to speculation that the U.S. might deploy tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea or Japan to counter China's South Pacific expansion. Colby's message seems to warn that "Asia's defense is the utmost priority of the United States, and we should not question its capability, intention, and willingness."

However, several doubts remain. The U.S. has acknowledged its overwhelming economic and military power. Yet, it has not shown a smart use of this power. Professor Steven Walt of Harvard University's Foreign Policy analysis recently concluded that the U.S. only fought one war with complete victory since World War II—the 1991 Gulf War—while it lost other wars and failed in the Korean War.

There's a strong suspicion that this U.S. power, tasked with a "wrong war for wrong objectives," could lead to "wrong wars for wrong objectives" again. The Iran war exemplifies this point. The war's intentions and reasons were unclear, and the Gulf region saw worsening conditions. The collateral damage to Arab nations that the U.S. allied with was significant, and concerns about the U.S. leadership's inconsistent decisions have grown.

One can't help but wonder if Saudi Arabia, which the U.S. cooperated with, would have allied with Turkey, Pakistan, and the Sunni military alliance. Perhaps the countries of the Arab region would have been spared such concerns. For Colby's appeal to work effectively, trust-sharing between the U.S. and ally nations is essential. While Japan and the Philippines can share their threat perception with the U.S., South Korea and other ASEAN nations may not.

South Korea's primary threat comes from North Korea, while the U.S. is concerned with China. Deploying tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea or other countries doesn't seem plausible for the current South Korean government led by Yoon Suk-yeol. The South Korean public and civil society would likely remain silent if the U.S. government or Congress, particularly the extreme right-wing faction, continues to demand strong public statements and excessive pressure on trade, investment, and Coupv issues.

Without a solid foundation of trust, the promise of "Believe and follow the United States. Asia is the utmost priority of the United States" appears hollow. But the message Colby is broadcasting is clear: "Asia is the utmost priority of the United States, and we must not take its capability, intention, and willingness for granted."

However, there's still room for concern. The U.S. must demonstrate leadership in preventive diplomacy and build trust while easing tensions and establishing a balance of power in the region. Only then can the U.S. reclaim its past glory.