Peru June GDP Grows 1.75% as Coastal El Niño Hits Key Sectors

Peru's June GDP grew 1.75% year-on-year, according to official data released on August 15, 2026. This marks the second consecutive month of deceleration, with May expanding by 2.18% and April by roughly 3.8%. Four sectors contracted while three posted solid gains, indicating an economy with clear pockets of pain despite overall growth.

Fishing suffered the hardest hit, with output plunging 51.94% year-on-year, while agriculture declined 8.12%, manufacturing fell 6.19%, and mining and hydrocarbons slipped 2.18%. Conversely, construction surged 9.04%, commerce rose 7.81%, and other services expanded 5.45%. Despite the weak primary sectors, the headline number remained positive.

Cumulative GDP for the first half of 2026 grew 3.05% compared to the same period in 2025, with a trailing 12-month rate of 3.33% through June. The slowdown is attributed to El Niño Costero, a coastal warming event that pushed anchoveta stocks deeper into the ocean, slashing catch volumes, and caused erratic rainfall and heat to hurt farm yields in coastal valleys.

While the Ministry of Economy and Finance maintains its 2026 growth forecast of 3.5%, independent analysts see a more modest 3.1-3.3% figure, factoring in prolonged weather uncertainty. The manufacturing sector's decline is linked to fishing, as anchoveta availability could normalize only with cooler waters. The government's focus on public investment and reconstruction spending aims to cushion the blow, but a durable rebound depends on how quickly ocean temperatures normalize.