Iran’s oil is trapped while rivals’ exports from the Persian Gulf are poised to surge, but Tehran could do whatever it takes to break the chokehold

The U.S. and Iran find themselves stuck in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides unable to fully prevail. The U.S. has imposed a naval blockade, restricting Iran's oil exports and imports, while Iran continues to launch missile attacks without sparking a full-scale war. Despite these hostilities, oil prices have remained volatile but relatively stable.

In reality, oil is still flowing through the strait, contrary to Iran's claim of a complete blockade, as countries like Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE utilize covert ship-to-ship transfers to circumvent Tehran's restrictions. The Trump administration estimates that around 7 million barrels of oil per day are getting through, a significant drop from the prewar peak of 20 million barrels but still enough to keep global markets afloat.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, another major exporter in the Persian Gulf, is set to increase its output as its ships gather at the strait's entrance. The U.S. blockade, however, continues to inflict economic pain on Iran, prompting officials there to warn of a crumbling economy and urging their leadership to find a way to break free from the blockade, be it through negotiation or force.

Iran has adapted its military capabilities, developing advanced missiles and bolstering its defenses to better withstand U.S.-Israeli aggression. The U.S. has also exhausted much of its interceptor stockpile, which likely influenced President Trump's decision to halt a more aggressive military response. As Iran's naval blockade strains its resources, it seems unlikely that Tehran will remain passive as its economy continues to deteriorate.

Experts predict that Iran will likely retaliate, given its demonstrated resilience and willingness to endure hardship.