Expert Explains: India’s campaign for a UN Security Council seat in 2028-29

India has initiated its campaign to secure a two-year term on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the 2028-29 cycle. This would mark India's ninth tenure on the council. The election will be held in June 2027, with Tajikistan being the sole competitor for the Asian seat. The UN is organized into five regional groups representing various parts of the world: Asia, Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe & Others (WEOG), which includes the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Israel.

The UNSC comprises 10 non-permanent members, elected by the UN General Assembly for two-year terms, including members from Africa, Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America, and WEOG. Elections to the UNSC occur annually, with five members retiring, creating opportunities for the non-permanent members to rotate. India's campaign against Tajikistan may seem straightforward, considering India's global standing and G-20 membership.

However, the election process can be unpredictable, as demonstrated by a recent three-way contest for Western seats where Portugal and Austria outperformed Germany. Germany has consistently sought UNSC membership every seven or eight years, with the last term being 2019-20. The election is conducted via a secret ballot, making it difficult to ascertain the exact dynamics at play.

However, there is mounting discontent among the Global South regarding Germany's stance on Israel's conflict in Gaza, suggesting solidarity among smaller UN member countries against major powers. Similarly, in the Asian group, Kyrgyzstan defeated the Philippines, obtaining 142 votes out of 191 cast, thanks to support from the Organisation for Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and China.

This victory highlights the importance of a strong global campaign for India, as demonstrated by India's 187 votes in a similar situation in 2010, when it faced a challenge from Kazakhstan.