Anthropic IPO valuation hinges on US$190-200bil 2028 revenue forecast
NEW YORK: As Anthropic prepares for what could be one of the biggest initial public offerings (IPOs) on record, Wall Street is looking further into the future than it commonly does to put a price on the artificial intelligence (AI) company, valuing it based on how much revenue it could generate two years from now.
Anthropic is set to make its highly anticipated initial public offering, with Wall Street looking ahead to a potential 2028 revenue of $190 billion to $200 billion. This forecast is significantly higher than the company's current revenue run rate of $47 billion. The AI firm's ambitious projections have led bankers and investors to use revenue multiples based on future earnings forecasts to determine Anthropic's valuation, a strategy that is not commonly employed for high-growth software companies.
The unprecedented growth and heavy spending on AI infrastructure by Anthropic make it challenging to set benchmarks for the company, which is still investing heavily to build its AI capabilities. Companies like Cloudflare, Palantir, and SpaceX are being considered as public market comparables to help determine appropriate multiples for Anthropic's financial forecasts.
While established companies are typically valued more heavily on earnings (EBITDA), Anthropic's current EBITDA does not fully capture the company's future economics. The company's spending on GPUs, computing capacity, model training, inference, and hiring is necessary to support its rapid expansion, but these expenses could become a smaller percentage of revenue as the business grows.
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