Ukraine Needs to Hit Another 10% of Russia’s Refining Capacity to Trigger Economic Collapse

Economist Oleksandr Savchenko stated that Ukraine must destroy an additional 10% of Russia's oil-refining capacity in order to potentially cause a major economic crisis. Russia has over 100 oil-refining enterprises, with around 20-25 major facilities that serve as crucial employers and tax contributors in various regions. Savchenko believes Ukraine's long-range strikes should aim to reduce Russia's refining capacity to between 45-50% of its normal levels.

This reduction would disrupt multiple sectors, including transport, agriculture, and construction, as there would not be enough gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel. Russia could only compensate for approximately 5% of the fuel shortage through imports, primarily from India. Savchenko divided the remaining reduction into stages: the first 10% would primarily impact less profitable businesses and vulnerable populations, while the next 10% would significantly affect businesses and economically active Russians.

A further 10% reduction would notably disrupt agriculture, transportation, and construction, while eliminating the final 10-15% could reduce overall fuel consumption by around 45% and lead to an economic collapse across industries and regions. To achieve this goal, Savchenko suggested Ukraine should focus on repeated strikes on damaged refineries to prevent their restoration and attacks on facilities that have not yet been targeted.

He believes it would be ideal for Ukraine to accomplish this by November, as a severe deterioration in Russia's economic situation could heighten pressure on Moscow to accept a ceasefire. Savchenko connected this timeline to the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, expecting political pressure on the Trump administration to influence its stance towards Russia.