The new crescent: Mecca pact gives rise to a Saudi-led Sunni bloc, posing new challenges for Israel

On August 7, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, marking the formalization of a conservative Sunni Islamic bloc intended to counterbalance both Israel and Iran. Analysts have recently taken note of this emerging group, which has its roots in existing bilateral ties in trade, economic relations, and military cooperation. While Qatar and the Syrian regime are also components of this bloc, the pact signifies that Riyadh seeks to join this emerging axis.

The agreement promises collective deterrence against aggression and enhanced defense cooperation among the three states, resembling NATO's Article 5. However, it does not obligate members to enter war against another member if attacked. This is similar to NATO's Article 5, which only requires a member state to take necessary action, including the use of armed force, in response to an attack on another member.

Turkey and Pakistan have strengthened their strategic and defense ties over the last decade, with a notable $1.5 billion deal in 2018 where Pakistan bought four MILGEM-class ships from Turkey. The two countries also collaborate on drone development and Turkey has aided in upgrading Pakistan's F-16 fighter bombers. Both nations share a common political outlook, seeking to assert themselves against rivals.

Saudi Arabia's involvement in the Mecca pact is more complex, as the Crown Prince has previously shown interest in closer relations with Israel. However, in the post-October 7 Middle East, military defense and religious and civilizational symbolism are now emphasized. Saudi Arabia is hedging its bets, seeking to convey to the US and regional allies that it has other options and partners, even though Riyadh remains a sought-after outlier in the emerging Sunni alliance.