Tariff refunds are juicing corporate profits and GDP as more tailwinds converge to propel growth to a blistering 4.3% pace, top economist says

The Trump administration has returned over $100 billion to U.S. businesses and importers who paid his global tariffs. This money is having a significant impact on the economy, as it is already boosting corporate earnings and growth. According to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok, the refunds could contribute up to 0.2 percentage points to third-quarter GDP growth, which is projected to reach a blistering 4.3%.

This is a significant acceleration from the 1.5% growth seen in the second quarter and the 2.1% growth in the first quarter. The refunds are combining with other positive factors, such as ongoing AI spending, tax cuts, and the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing. Slok notes that the economy remains robust despite a weak July jobs report, which he attributes to seasonal adjustments.

He believes the market is underestimating the strength of current growth, and rates are likely to remain higher for longer.