Ghana delivers strong performance in retail market in half-year; value up 15.6% – Maverick Research

Maverick Research revealed that Ghana delivered the strongest performance in the retail market during the first half of 2026, with a 15.6% increase in value. The research data showed that Ghana's volumes grew by 8.9%, while Côte d'Ivoire had a 3% growth in volumes and a 2% increase in value. Cameroon's performance was slightly better than Côte d'Ivoire, with a 2.7% increase in volumes and 5.2% in value.

The report suggests that Ghana has transitioned from inflation-led to consumer-led growth, with consumers buying more and paying less. The easing of inflation, a stronger cedi, and improving purchasing power contributed to households rebuilding their baskets. Affordability played a significant role in the recovery, with average prices per kilogram decreasing by 8% for edible oil and 6% for pasta.

Non-alcoholic beverages remained resilient, but Home and Personal Care products recovered unevenly, with consumers prioritizing necessities over discretionary products. Oil prices are expected to be a critical external variable for the West African FMCG sector in the second half of 2026. Brent crude was trading near $87 per barrel, and supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions continued to create volatility.

Ghana and Cameroon, being oil producers, could benefit from higher oil prices, but consumers may still face higher transport and shelf prices. Côte d'Ivoire, on the other hand, faces a more direct inflation risk, as sustained high oil prices could reverse some of the affordability gains that fueled its first-half volume growth. Cocoa and gold are essential factors shaping purchasing power in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.

Cocoa prices have corrected sharply, and lower cocoa prices could reduce costs for chocolate, biscuits, and beverages. However, it could also hurt export earnings and household incomes in cocoa-growing communities. Gold prices support export receipts, foreign-exchange reserves, and cedi stability, which would help contain imported inflation and sustain consumer recovery.

Brands that win in the remainder of 2026 will focus on better availability, sharper pricing, and stronger execution, outlet by outlet.