Fact Check: Prabowo's Claim of 13-Year High Economic Growth

President Prabowo Subianto claimed that Indonesia's economic growth in 2026 will be the highest in the last 13 years, citing figures of 5.61 percent growth in the first quarter and a 5.45 percent increase through the first half of the year. However, fact-checking reveals that this growth does not necessarily indicate an improvement in public welfare.

The Central Statistics Agency reported a 5.61 percent year-over-year GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing rates since 2013. Growth in the first half of the year stood at 5.45 percent, primarily driven by the accommodation and food and beverage sector, as well as government consumption expenditure. While macroeconomic researcher Teuku Riefky noted that government spending is heavily supporting this growth, excluding it would reduce real economic growth to around 4.52 percent, which is below the average over the past decade.

However, economist Acuviarta Kartabi from Pasundan University emphasized that GDP growth alone does not reflect actual economic conditions on the ground. He highlighted income inequality, with a higher Gini ratio in urban areas, and the shrinking middle class, noting a 16.5 percent decline in the middle-class population over five years.

Additionally, there has been a surge in layoffs, and the middle class's decline suggests that high economic growth is not evenly distributed and does not automatically lead to increased public welfare.