What does the first visit to the Kuril Islands by Vladimir Putin mean for China?

Vladimir Putin's visit to the disputed southern Kuril Islands marks a strategic effort by Moscow and Beijing to pressure Japan on multiple fronts, according to analysts. The Russian president's symbolic trip to the Kuril Islands, located north of Hokkaido and claimed by Japan as the Northern Territories, precedes the anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II on Saturday. This marks Putin's first visit to the islands as president, following Dmitry Medvedev's visit in 2010.

Analysts suggest that Putin's visit is part of a broader coordinated effort between Russia and China to put pressure on Japan over various issues, including Western sanctions on Russia and Japan's stance on Taiwan. Li Lifan, a Russia and Central Asia specialist at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that this comprehensive approach aims to make Japan uncomfortable and warn against visiting the controversial Yasukuni Shrine on the war anniversary.

The strained relationship between Russia and Japan has worsened since Japan imposed sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, aligning with the US. Tokyo's relationship with Beijing also deteriorated sharply in November last year when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested a potential military response if China attacked Taiwan. China and Russia have conducted joint military patrols in the surrounding waters, which have drawn protests from Japan.

Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the state-linked Global Times, described Putin's visit as a political gesture aimed at punishing Japan for its sanctions against Russia and worsening relations with China. Japan has shifted away from its post-war pacifism and boosted military capabilities, citing concerns over China's assertive defense posture. Russia and China accuse Japan of harboring nuclear ambitions, which heightens tensions between the countries.

Putin's visit to the Kurils comes as Japan considers revising its three key defense documents, potentially questioning its non-nuclear principles. The visit also precedes potential high-level meetings at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in November, which China, Russia, and Japan are expected to attend. Analysts believe Putin's strong stance with Japan could compel Japan to adopt a more restrained approach, potentially impacting its relations with both Russia and China ahead of the November summit.