Labor market exhibits ‘continued resilience,’ The Conference Board finds

The Conference Board's Employment Trends Index experienced a rise in July, indicating potential continued stability in the labor market, according to Conrad Qi, an economic data scientist at The Conference Board. The index, which measures payroll employment, saw an increase in July following a revised June reading, despite a decline in May and June.

Qi noted that this rebound occurred despite a low-hire and low-fire job market. However, the growth in the index was minimal, standing at just 0.6% higher than a year ago, suggesting that payroll growth might remain modest in the coming months. The index's most significant negative factor was a rise in the share of involuntary part-time workers in July, although industrial production also negatively impacted the index.

Yet, there was a modest but positive job growth. Positive factors contributing to the index included the share of small firms reporting job vacancies and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Small firm measure rose to 36% in July from 32% in June, signaling increased hiring efforts. Job openings also increased by 168,000 to 7.53 million, further boosting the index.

Real manufacturing and trade sales also showed a slight increase of 0.2%. Additionally, the percentage of consumers who believed jobs were hard to get fell to 21.5% in July from 21.7% in June. Recent Resume.org data suggests that while 92% of companies plan to hire in 2026, over half expect layoffs due to AI, reorganization/restructuring, and budget constraints.

Companies are looking for workers who can quickly learn new tools and technologies and have strong communication skills.