Job-finding rates have fallen the most for America's most reliably-employed workers
Workers who are almost always employed are finding that seeking out a new role is a more daunting task.
Recently, job-finding rates for America's most reliably employed workers have seen a significant decline. According to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, primary workers, who make up about 55% of the US labor pool, have experienced a notable drop in their job-finding rates. These workers typically have stable employment histories and are rarely represented in unemployment statistics unless there's a significant issue.
Historically, primary workers have had the highest odds of finding a new job, but their job-finding rates have plummeted by 13 percentage points from November 2022 to September 2025, marking the largest decline among any group in the analysis.
Secondary workers, accounting for around 14% of the labor pool, are often unemployed or frequently switch jobs. Historically, they have faced a lower job-finding rate compared to primary workers. Nonetheless, their situation has not worsened as dramatically as that of primary workers. In contrast to primary workers, secondary workers saw a decline of only two percentage points during the same period.
The study highlights that roles with more exposure to AI have encountered the most substantial drop in job-finding rates. Before 2023, when ChatGPT became widely accessible, AI-exposed roles' job-finding rates moved in tandem with other job levels. However, since then, outcomes for AI-exposed fields have deteriorated significantly.
AI has also disrupted the hiring landscape for new workers who might otherwise become deeply integrated into the job market. Research indicates that generative AI can substantially enhance productivity, particularly for less experienced workers, altering the composition of new hiring.
For entry-level workers, the tightening labor market, driven by the demand for a broader skill set, presents challenges. Meanwhile, experienced white-collar workers grappling with declining job-finding rates have been compelled to make difficult decisions, such as accepting pay cuts. While there are some positive developments, such as payrolls added in the professional and business services and information sectors, these gains have not been sufficient to counterbalance the broader challenges in the labor market.
Overall, despite economic growth, the US has experienced job losses in July, suggesting that finding employment may remain a challenging endeavor.
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