Hong’s loss in WI raises questions about reliability of primary polls

The recent political landscape in the United States has been shaken by Francesca Hong's surprising loss in the Democratic primary for the gubernatorial race in Wisconsin. This unexpected outcome has raised concerns about the accuracy of primary polls. The loss of Hong, a 37-year-old Democrat, has cast doubt on the reliability of such polls, especially considering the discrepancy between poll predictions and actual election results.

Political analysts and media experts have speculated that Hong's core supporters may have been overrepresented in the polls. Young people and those with progressive views, who strongly backed her, might have been more responsive to surveys than their share of the electorate suggested. Chaz Nuttycombe, the head of State Navigate, a nonpartisan political organization, pointed out "non-response bias," suggesting that Hong's supporters were more likely to participate in polls than other voters.

However, correcting such biases is challenging because the political leanings of those who do not take part in surveys may differ from those who do. Even with adjustments based on demographic characteristics, the resulting error can be difficult to eliminate. The unique Wisconsin primary election system also complicates polling, as the state does not require voters to register with a specific party.

This makes it challenging for polling organizations to predict the exact number of independents or Republican-leaning voters who will take part in the Democratic primary.

Another potential explanation for the polling discrepancy is that the polls underestimated the Republican-leaning share of voters in Wisconsin. Chaz Nuttycombe stated that if Republicans had voted, they went overwhelmingly anti-Hong. Additionally, Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll, suggested that many undecided voters supported Crowley, who had a late surge in the polls.

The race remained fluid until the final vote, with Crowley initially trailing behind Hong. However, Crowley later surged in the polls, gaining support from undecided voters and ultimately winning the race.

The Wisconsin result echoes the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, where a progressive candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, led the polls but won by just 1 percentage point. These successive polling errors in the Midwest states have highlighted the challenges faced by such surveys as they prepare for the 2028 presidential primary. The focus now is on accurately assessing the gap between die-hard supporters and voters, as well as the behavior of undecided voters who may delay their decisions until the last minute.