Global Market Today: Asian stocks advance, crude oil holds decline

Asian equities rose on Thursday, with evidence of easing US inflation and a drop in oil prices suggesting that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates next month. MSCI's Asia Pacific equities index increased 0.4%, while South Korea's Kospi Index climbed almost 3%. Earlier in the week, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 had gained, reaching new highs.

Treasuries rallied as US wholesale inflation cooled in July, causing yields across maturities to fall. The yield on the two-year bond dropped six basis points to 4.14%. Money markets now estimate a less than 40% probability of a Fed rate increase in September.

Back-to-back mild inflation reports, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report and a decline in oil prices, are reducing pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy at its upcoming meeting. While the Middle East conflict remains a concern, equity traders are increasingly focused on the resurgence of the artificial intelligence sector, following a recent semiconductor stock sell-off.

US wholesale inflation slowed more than expected in July, with the producer price index rising 4.7% year-over-year, down from a 5.5% increase in June and unchanged from the previous month. Despite the positive inflation data, the US sold 30-year bonds at the highest yield in a quarter-century, reflecting the premium investors are demanding to finance the country's deficits.

Long-term yields have surged above 5% this year as heightened energy prices have raised concerns about persistent inflation and the likelihood of the Fed maintaining higher rates for an extended period.

Federal Reserve officials remain split on the appropriate path for interest rates. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin advocated for maintaining current rates as inflation eases, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated her preference for a rate hike. According to Arun Sundaram at CFRA, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may have enough room to keep rates unchanged due to Thursday's favorable inflation reading and last week's softer jobs report.

However, the Fed's decision is far from resolved, as investors still face several potential surprises.